Steps for scanning regression tables
This is a typical, if simple, regression table for an ordinary least squares regression (OLS).
% shift to Trump, 2012-2016 | |
County median income ($1,000s) | -0.158* |
(0.006) | |
Constant | 8.337* |
(0.351) | |
Observations | 3,111 |
Adjusted R2 | 0.203 |
Note: | * p<0.05 |
The steps required to understand it are summarized below, with fuller explanations in the next sections.
Step 0: Substantive Meaning
- Know what the variables mean and what the unit of observation is. In the table above, the variables are the % shift to Trump and county median income. The unit of observation is one county in the United States.
Step 1: Statistical Significance
- Identify coefficients with a star. In the table above, \(-0.158\) is a coefficient. For the OLS regression with one variable presented above, \(-0.158\) represents the slope in the single variable linear equation. In other types of regressions, a coefficient is similar to a slope, but not identical to one.
- The star is a very approximate indicator of coefficients that are worth paying attention to. These are called statistically significant coefficients.
Step 2: Direction of the Effect
- Look at the direction of the coefficient/slope. Is it positive or negative?
- We can only be confident in the direction of the effect if the coefficient is statistically significant.
Step 3: Substantive Significance/Effect Size
- Substantive significance indicates whether we care about the size of the effect/coefficient. It is not the same as statistical significance, and is at least as important as statistical significance.
- The coefficient \(-0.158\) indicates our best guess about the effect size. This can be translated into an indication of substantive significance, but is never more than a best guess.
- The next sections describe how to interpret coefficients in linear regressions. For other regressions, rely on the author to interpret the substantive meaning of the reported coefficients.